Browsing Category: "Northeast Financial"
Foreclosures Per Capita | February 2010
According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings topped 300,000 for the 12th straight month last month as 1 in every 418 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing.
It’s a small improvement from January and a just 6 percent increase over February 2009.
On a per-capita basis, foreclosure density varied by state:
- Nevada : 1 foreclosure filing per 102 homes
- Florida : 1 foreclosure filing per 163 homes
- Arizona : 1 foreclosure filing per 163 homes
- California : 1 foreclosure filing per 195 homes
Also, as in January 2010, foreclosures across the country were concentrated. 10 states beat the national Foreclosure Per Capita average; 40 states fell below. Like everything else is real estate, it seems, foreclosures are local.
For today’s home buyers, foreclosures represent an interesting opportunity.
Homes bought in various stages of foreclosure are often less expensive than other, non-foreclosure homes. It’s one reason why distressed home sales account for 38 percent of all resales. However, less expensive doesn’t always mean less costly. A foreclosed home may be in various stages of disrepair and they’re often sold as-is, as policy.
Buying new or used can be cheaper than buying broken-down.
Therefore, if you’re in the market for a bank-owned home, make sure you know what you’re buying before you sign a contract. Have qualified professionals review and inspect the property, as needed. Damage to pipes or the property’s structure, for example, may not be so obvious on a walk-though and you’ll want to know about it before you buy.
Also, foreclosed homes are federal tax credit-eligible. Buyers must be under contract by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010.
Don’t Rush To Refinance That ARM — It May Be Adjusting To 3 Percent Or Lower
If your mortgage is set to adjust this year, the smart move may be to let it. Today’s conforming mortgages are adjusting lower than ever before — as low as 3 percent. It may not be what you expected when you signed for your ARM several years ago.
The reason why ARMs are adjusting lower is because of how they’re made.
When conforming adjustable-rate mortgages adjust, they adjust according to a pre-determined formula. The formula is the sum of a constant and a variable. The constant is usually 2.25 percent and the variable is a daily-changing interest rate called LIBOR.
The formula looks like this:
New Mortgage Rate = LIBOR + 2.250 percent
LIBOR is an acronym for London Interbank Offered Rate. It’s an interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other. In Fall 2008, when Lehman Brothers fell and sparked a global banking fear, LIBOR spiked as the risk of inter-bank borrowing jumped.
Since then, however, LIBOR is down.
Normalcy is returning to banking and the timing couldn’t be better for homeowners with ARMs. 15 months ago, a homeowner’s ARM may have adjusted to 6 1/2 percent. Today, that same ARM falls to just above 3.
As a strategy play, it might make sense to let your ARM adjust. Or, because fixed rates are still near 5 percent, converting that ARM to a long-term fixed-rate product might make sense, too. The decision is a balance between how low do you want your payment, and how long might you live in your home.
The longer you stay, the more it might make sense to switch to fixed-rate, even though ARM rates are so low.
If you’ve got an adjusting ARM, talk to your loan officer about your choices. Once March ends and the Fed withdraws its mortgage market support, mortgage rates may rise and the fixed-rate option may be gone.
7 Weeks Remain To Find A Home, Claim Up To $8,000 In Tax Credits
In November, Congress extended and expanded the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit program to include a subset of “move-up” buyers — homeowners that have owned and lived in their home for 5 of the last 8 years.
The credit ranges up to $8,000 per buyer. There’s now just 7 weeks left to take advantage.
To be eligible, home buyers must be under contract for a new home no later than April 30, 2010, and must be closed no later than June 30, 2010.
In addition to meeting the deadline dates, there’s a basic set of requirements to be tax credit-eligible:
- You can’t purchase the home from a parent, spouse, or child
- You can’t purchase the home from an entity in which the seller is a majority owner
- You can’t acquire the home by gift or inheritance
- Each buyer in the purchase must meet eligibility requirements
There’s other criteria, too.
For one, the sales price on the subject property cannot exceed $800,000. Homes sold for more than $800,000 are ineligible for the tax credit. Furthermore, households earning more than $125,000 as single-filers, or $225,500 for joint-filers, are ineligible.
You can read the complete eligibility requirements at the IRS website, or, you may just find it simpler to speak with your accountant about it. There are some nuances in qualifying for and claiming the tax credit on your returns and getting a professional’s opinion is always wise.
And lastly, don’t forget that government’s tax credit program is a true tax credit. It’s not a tax deduction. This means that a tax filer whose “normal” tax liability is $3,500 and who is eligible for $8,000 in credit will receive a $4,500 refund from the U.S. Treasury.
If you’re currently in the House Hunt, mark your calendar for April 30, 2010. It’s 7 weeks away and you can be sure that as the date gets closer, buyer traffic is going to increase. You may find sellers more willing to negotiate today than several weeks from now.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : March 8, 2010
Mortgage markets improved last week in low-volume trading.
Between Monday to Thursday, Wall Street focused on the upcoming jobs reports and mortgage markets gained while traders jockeyed for position. Mortgage rates drifted lower through Thursday afternoon. But, then, after a better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report Friday morning, mortgage markets — and mortgage rates — reversed.
Overall, mortgage rates dropped last week, but only by a small margin. Rates were best Thursday afternoon.
It was the second consecutive week in which mortgage rates fell.
Last week was also interesting in that both stock markets and bond markets improved, proving that rates don’t always rise when stock prices do. 455 of the S&P 500 companies posted gains last week.
If you’re shopping for a home or a refinance, though, don’t rest on your laurels. After Friday’s big sell-off, this week opens into a major headwind and, plus, the Federal Reserve’s support for mortgage markets ends in just 3 weeks.
This week, without much data to influence traders, the upward momentum in rates may have little cause to temper. We’ll see the Consumer Confidence numbers on Tuesday and Retail Sales on Friday. Beyond that, there’s not much else.
After last week’s performance, conforming mortgage rates may be poised to rise rather sharply. If you’re waiting for the right time to lock your rate, it may have been this past Thursday. Consider locking your rate early this week to protect against further rate hikes.
Pending Home Sales Drag In January, But Should Rebound For Spring
Fewer homes went under contract in January as the housing market continues to limp through the winter months.
According to the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell to its lowest level in 3 quarters this January. By contrast, in October 2009, the index had touched a 3-year high.
The Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of homes that have gone under contract to sell, but have yet to close nationwide. It’s compiled using data from more than 100 regional listing services and 60-plus brokerages — the sample set encompasses 20 percent of all home resales in a given month.
Economists have come to rely on the Pending Home Sales Index because of its high correlation to actual home sales. 80% of all home marked “pending” close within 60 days. Many of the rest close within 120.
Therefore, when we see Pending Home Sales show weakness like it did in January, we can infer that home resales will remain weak through the spring.
But will they really?
- Fewer sales should drag down home prices, bringing more buyers into the market
- Mortgage rates are still very low, but are poised to rise in just a few weeks
- The home buyer tax credit requires buyers to be in contract by April 30, 2010
In other words, there’s a confluence of factors that could lead to a rush of sales around the country over the next two months, reversing the housing market’s recent momentum.
Tying Friday’s Jobs Report To Rising Mortgage Rates
Conforming and FHA mortgage rates have improved over the last 10 days, but that could all change this Friday with the release of February’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Non-Farm Payrolls is the official name of the government’s monthly jobs report and, given the fragile state of the U.S. economy, Wall Street will be watching it closely.
Mortgage rates could spike come Friday morning.
Jobs are an important part of the nation’s recovery. Among other concerns, unemployed Americans don’t spend as much money on goods and services, and are more likely to default on a mortgage. This retards economic growth and increases the potential for foreclosures.
When jobs numbers worsen, therefore, it follows that economic projections worsen, too.
Poor employment figures draw money away from the stock markets and into less-risky bond markets, including mortgage-backed bonds. Mortgage rates improve as a result. Conversely, when jobs numbers improve, stock markets gain and bond markets worsen.
Analysts expect that a net 30,000 jobs were lost in February.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics press release hits at 8:30 A.M. ET, roughly an hour before Friday’s mortgage pricing will be available to consumers. If you’re worried about rates rising on the heels of a strong jobs report, therefore, be sure to get your rate lock in today instead. Once Friday gets here, it may be too late.
How To Properly Screen A Prospective Tenant
According to the the National Association of Realtors®, “distressed homes” represented nearly 2 of every fifth home sold in January 2010. Clearly, real estate investors are taking advantage of good deals on cheap property. But there’s risk involved.
This NBC Today Show interview first ran in March 2009, featuring real estate expert Barbara Corcoran. Despite its age, the message remains relevant. Today may be a terrific time to buy a bank-owned home — just make sure you do your research first. There’s plenty of ways for investors to get burned.
Some of the tips in the video include:
- Buy in your own backyard
- Start small, then build to a bigger portfolio
- Watch receipts — rent rolls don’t matter if tenants aren’t paying rent
Corcoran also gives pointers on how to evaluate a prospective tenant.
Foreclosures should represent a large number of 2010’s total home sales and will offer interesting opportunities to bona fide real estate investors. be you jump in, make sure to watch the video. The rents you save may be your own.
Remember, the stats and the data are from 12 months ago, but the advice stays meaningful.
Existing Home Sales Drop Again In January But Stay On The Trendline
The winter months have not been kind to home sales.
After plunging 17 percent in December, Existing Home Sales fell by an additional 7 percent in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. An “existing home” is a home resold by a previous owner (i.e. not new construction).
In looking at the annualized, adjusted Existing Home Sales data, we find:
- Sales volume is at its lowest levels since June 2009
- Sales volume fell below its 12-month rolling average
- Home supplies are at a 5-month high
These are similar findings to the New Home Sales data issued by the government last week. That report put new home sales at a 40-year low and showed new homes supplies higher by an entire month.
But don’t think housing rebound has halted! Home sales are cyclical and there are outside forces on today’s market.
For one, the market is still feeling the after-effects of the original First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. Sales spiked in the months leading up to the original November 2009 expiration date. A pull-back is natural and expected.
Looking at the long-term trend, Existing Home Sales volume appears right in line.
Furthermore, weather across much of the U.S. was awful in January. That, too, can impede home sales as homes are neither shown nor negotiated when weather is majorly inclement.
Anecdotal evidence is showing sales activity higher through February and into March. And, although it’s unlikely we’ll see a spike through April like we did last November, buy-side demand for homes should remain strong. The good news of the sagging sales reports is that today’s buyers may find home prices are lower and sellers are more willing to negotiate.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : March 1, 2010
Mortgage markets improved last week as economic reports painted a less-than-stellar portrait of the U.S. economy and concerns of a looming monetary policy change eased. Mortgage pricing improved dramatically, despite a late-Friday retreat.
Mortgage rates are now at their lowest levels since early-February.
Last week was heavy on negative data:
- Consumer Confidence posted 16% short of expectations
- New Home Sales posted 13% short of expectations
- Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected
In addition, both the Case-Shiller and Home Price Indices showed a slight pullback in the housing sector.
The impact of these statistics was muted, however. This is because Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his semi-annual outlook to Congress and markets focused more on the chairman verbiage than hard data, looking for clues about the future of Fed policy.
Bernanke stayed on message — the Fed Funds Rate will stay low for an extended period of time.
Mortgage rates were also helped by a strengthening U.S. dollar and demand for U.S.-denominated bonds. When demand for mortgage-backed bonds is strong, mortgage rates fall.
This week, mortgage rates will jockey around Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Jobs are playing a large role in mortgage bond trading and markets expect that 30,000 jobs were lost in February. If the actual figure is better than 30,000 jobs lost, mortgage rates will rise. If it’s worse, rates will rise.
Other important data this week include Personal Consumption Expenditures — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — plus the Fed’s Beige Book release. Mortgage rates remain in flux so float with caution.
Mortgage rates look good today, but by Friday, they could be much, much worse.
The Home Price Index Shows Some Regions Up, Some Regions Down
Earlier this week, the private-sector Case-Shiller Index showed home prices slightly lower between November and December. Thursday, the public-sector Home Price Index showed the same.
Publishing on a 2-month lag, the Federal Home Finance Agency said home prices fell by 1.6 percent nationally in December. And that’s an average, of course. Some regions performed well in December as compared to November, others didn’t.
- Values in the Middle Atlantic states improved slightly
- Values in New England were essentially unchanged
- Values in the Mountain states sagged, down 3.5%
These aren’t just footnotes. They’re an important piece toward understanding what national real estate statistics really mean. In short, “national statistics” are just a compilation of a bunch of local statistics.
For example, if we dig deeper into the FHFA Home Price Index 70-page report, we find that cities like Terre Haute, IN, Buffalo, NY, and Amarillo, TX posted year-over-year home price gains. You won’t see that in a “national” report.
Furthermore, it’s a sure bet that those same cities, you could find neighborhoods that are thriving, and others that are not. Just because the city shows higher home values overall, it won’t necessarily be the case for every home in the city.
Every street in every neighborhood of every town in America has its own “local real estate market” and, in the end, that’s what should be most important to today’s buyers and sellers. National data helps identify trends and shape government policy but, to the layperson, it’s somewhat irrelevant.
So, when you need to know whether your home is gaining or losing value, you can’t look at the national data. You have to look at your block — what’s selling and not selling — and start your valuations from there.
As The Supply Of New Homes Grows, So Does The Opportunity For A "Good Deal"
The housing recovery showed particular weakness in the New Homes Sales category last month — good news for homebuyers around the country.
A “new home” is a home for which there’s no previous owner.
New Home Sales fell 11 percent from the month prior and posted the fewest units sold in a month since 1963 — the year the government first started tracking New Home Sales data.
Right now, there are roughly 234,000 new homes for sale nationwide and, at the current sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell them all. This is nearly 2 months longer than at October 2009’s pace.
The reasons for the spike in supply are varied:
- The original home buyer tax credit expired in November
- Weather conditions were awful in most of the country in January
- Weak employment and consumer confidence continue to hinder big ticket sales
Now, these might be less-than-optimal developments for the economy as a whole, but for buyers of new homes, it’s a welcome turn of events. Home prices are based on supply and demand, after all.
As a result, this season’s home buyers may be treated to “free” upgrades from home builders, plus seller concessions and lower sales prices overall.
It’s all a matter of timing, of course. New Home Sales reports on a 1-month lag so it’s not necessarily reflective of the current, post-Super Bowl home buying season. And from market to market, sales activity varies.
That said, mortgage rates remain low, home prices are steady, and the federal tax credit gives two more months to go under contract. It’s a favorable time to buy a new home.
December 2009 Case-Shiller Data Shows Battered Markets In Bona Fide Recovery
Using data compiled in December, Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday. The report shows home prices down just 2.5% on an annual basis, a figure much lower than the 8.7% annual drop reported after Q3.
According to Case-Shiller representatives, the housing market is “in better shape than it was this time last year”, but some of the summer’s momentum has been lost. 15 of 20 tracked markets declined in value between November and December 2009.
Meanwhile, it’s interesting to note the 5 markets that didn’t decline — Detroit, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego. Each of these metro regions were among the hardest hit nationwide when home prices first broke. Now, they’re leading the pack in price recovery.
For some real estate investors, that’s a positive signal. But we also have to consider the Case-Shiller Index’s flaws because they’re big ones.
As examples:
- Case-Shiller data is reported on a 2-month lag
- The Case-Shiller sample set includes just 20 U.S. cities
- There’s no “national real estate market” — real estate is local
That said, the Case-Shiller Index is still important. As the most widely-used private sector housing index, Case-Shiller helps to identify broader housing trends and many people believe housing is a key element in the economic recovery.
If the markets that led the housing decline will lead the housing resurgence, December’s data shows that full recovery is right around the corner.
